The Equity markets continued their down move this week. We broke through a lot of key support. For the week, the SPX was down 1.64% and for the month, it was down 3.70%
This is also the first time we have had 3 down weeks in a row since the start of this rally back in March of 2009.
This is also the first time we have broken below the 100 day moving average since we first crossed above it in April of 2009. This was the first backtest of it, and it failed to hold. The 200 day moving average is currently around 1013.
On the shorter time frame, we may have 1 more new low coming early on Monday, before we bounce for Minute wave [ii]. For now, I'm expecting this low to be somewhere around 1063-1065. We'll find out Monday morning.
The yellow box on that chart is where I expect Minute wave [ii] to hit. But I will not be surprised if we go a little higher than that, to perhaps 1121.
The previous Minute wave [ii]'s have retraced over 61.8%
As you can see, Minute wave [ii]'s have a tendency to be sharp and quick. The wave [ii]'s of October/November of 2007, September of 2008 and September of 2009 were all deep retraces. I have a feeling that this one might do the same thing.
Aside from the major indices, the sub-indices, such as the XLF, are also in a bearish pattern.
XLF currently has a decending triangle on the Daily chart.
But, the big player in the Financial sector, GS, also has a very bearish pattern in play.
The target for this Head and Shoulders pattern is 125. As you can see, it has already broken it's neckline, and has started making its way down. Watch for GS to lead down the XLF and the SPX.
Also, here is a rough count on the US Dollar ETF, UUP.
We should be continuing our up move on the Dollar.
0 comments:
Post a Comment