Market Update - 1/15/2010

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -100.90 or 0.94% at 10609.65
S&P 500 Index: -12.43 or 1.08% at 1136.03
NASDAQ Composite Index: -28.75 or 1.24% at 2287.99
CBOE Volatility Index: +0.37 or 2.10% at 18.00
NYSE Internals: 939 Advance. 2119 Decline.

Markets slip after Economic Data, JPM Earnings.

Looks like we did not get that new high I was looking for. Instead, we broke my pivot point at 1140. As I said yesterday, 1140 was the key number to watch for, and if it broke, it would be easier to put up a bearish count.

So now the alternate bearish count might be in play. I am going to mark today's down move as Minuette wave (i). Since we held support in the 1132 area, I am going to label the bounce from there as Minuette wave (ii). I don't believe wave (ii) is over yet. I think we will go back at test 1140 as resistance. 1140 is also the 50% fib retracement of this move down from 1150. If we break back over 1150 to the upside, the bearish count is out of play.

If we break today's low of 1131, we may have more downside coming, and might be in Minuette wave (iii).

The bullish count is that today was just one of those down days thrown in there before another big move up. The key number to watch for is 1150.

Today, the trendline coming from the March lows held perfectly on the Dow. As you can see from this chart, today's low was a perfect touch. We need to break this line to confirm some sort of "top."

The SPX also held this line coming from it's July lows.

So all in all, there is still no clear answer for now. Just continue to watch for the pivot points I have listed. Breaking those will tell us where we are headed.

The US Dollar was up today, and Crude Oil and Gold were down as a result. Financials led to the downside.

Remember, Monday is a holiday for the US Markets in honor of Martin Luther King, JR. Trading will resume on Tuesday. I will try and post a weekend update as well.