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Wednesday, January 27, 2010

The Four Horsemen




Apple, Google, Amazon and RIM are 4 of the highest weighted stocks on the Nasdaq. They lead the Nasdaq day in and day out. Overall, the Nasdaq follows these 4 stocks more than any others. These are the leaders. So what better way to analyze the markets than to look at it's leaders?

Apple.

Apple is probably one of the most favorited stocks out there. You can't blame people for loving Apple. It is a good company. It's just that the run up that it has had has been unbelievable. It would only be natural that it comes down.

Here is an Elliott Wave look at Apple:

Pretty nice looking wave structure. It looks complete. The next Intermediate wave should be down.

Apple has also broken some minor support, but it has yet to break it's major support lines.

As you can see from that chart, the 100 day MA is currently around 196. Breaking this will be exteremly bearish. If we break that, then the next major pivot is 186.50. Breaking this will also be very bearish. I expect a test of these levels soon. It also have big resistance at 215. As you can see, it had a nearly perfect double top in that area. If we break above, we could get a run to 220.

Google.

Another big player in the Nasdaq. Google is a very trendy stock. Once it finds a direction, it likes to stick with it.

As you can see from that chart, it has also completed a very nice looking Elliott Wave pattern. It looks like it also has started a new down trend. Here is another chart:

As you can see, the RSI is currently a little oversold. We also broke below the 100 day MA. The MA's are also in the process of a bearish alignment. I expect a quick to 550-560 before heading down.

We also have a potential Head and Shoulders on the GOOG Daily chart. It coincides well with the EW count. The Wave 2 bounce will be the right shoulder, then the break of the neckline will be the Wave 3 down move.


Amazon.

The largest online retailer. Even this stock has had an amazing run up. Here is the Elliott Wave count on it:

It seems that AMZN is already in a downtrend. Watch for earnings tomorrow. It could potentially have a big move.

Amazon is giving some bearish signals. The moving averages are having a bearish cross, and it appears to be in a very tight downward channel. The 100 day MA is at 116, so watch for support in that area.


RIM.

RIMM was the lagger out of the four, or so it seems... Although it did nearly triple in price, you still heard more people talking about Apple, Google, etc. But in terms of Elliott Wave, RIMM may be the furthest into it's new downtrend.

That Elliott Wave pattern also looks very good. Let's see what happens.

RIMM also seems to be in this downward channel.

All 4 of these stocks are starting to give bearish signals. Chances are, most of them will play out. But for now, the best thing to do is watch for the key pivot points. Breaking these points gives us the direction in which the stock will go.

Here is a quick chart of the Nasdaq.

It is sitting in a zone of very high resistance. Breaking below that range, 2160 area, is bearish. And breaking above the 2330 area is bullish.

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