Weekend Update for SPX, Dollar, and Gold.

For the week, the Dow and SPX were down while the Nasdaq was up.

Mostly quiet week. Had some economic data come out, but nothing too disappointing or nothing too uplifting. With barely 2 trading weeks left in the year, except it to stay quiet. Just like it did last year at this time. I expect big volume to come back around the 2nd week of January, similar to last year. I also expect the market to make it's final top in these next few weeks. But where?

I think the SPX will make it to somewhere between 1130-1160. The Dow will probably make it to somewhere around 10,550-10,700. By looking at this SPX chart, any price between that range will complete a "perfect" looking triple zigzag.

The US Dollar has been in an uptrend for over 3 weeks now. It seems that the Dollar has started it's Primary Wave 3/C. But of course, this hasn't impacted the Equity markets... yet. Commodities have taken a hit, but I'll get to that. In the long run, if the US Dollar can sustain a rally, it will eventually catch up with the broad markets. But at this point, it seems that the US Dollar has completed Minor Wave 1.

If the Dollar pulls back, the most likely target is around 76.355, which is the 50% fib. retracement.

Also, looking at the RSI and MACD, the Dollar looks a bit extended here. It will only be healthy if it backs off a little from here. But of course, if the Dollar comes down a little bit, it will cause the markets to rally. I think this will help the SPX get to new highs.

Gold also looks like it may have topped. In the past few weeks, it has come down pretty hard. Mainly to due an up trending Dollar. Many say that Gold will make it to $2000+, while this may be possible, I don't believe it, yet. I think Gold will pull back to the $1000 level before going up again. But this time, an uptrend in Gold will not be caused by a downtrend in the Dollar, but rather as a "safe haven" from a falling market, similar to what we saw earlier in 2009.

By looking at this chart, you can see we have a lot of support in the lower 1000's. I think we will eventually break through the 2 upward sloping trendlines, but only to find support at 1000-1018.

Remember, next week is a shortened trading week, with no trading on Friday in the US Equity Markets. But also next week is huge on economic data. Nothing on Monday, but Tuesday has GDP and Existing Home Sales. Wednesday has Personal Income/Outlays, Consumer Sentiment, and New Home Sales. Thursday is Durable Goods Orders.

Good luck trading this week everyone! :-)