S&P 500 Index: +1.30 or 0.12% at 1127.78
NASDAQ Composite Index: +5.39 or 0.24% at 2291.08
CBOE Volatility Index: +0.47 or 2.41% at 19.94
NYSE Internals: 1560 Advance. 1488 Decline.
The indices made new highs again today.
I had talked about two options last week on Thursday. If 1130 was to break, then we were in Minuette wave 3. If we broke 1119, it was Minuette wave 2. We got neither. We popped to 1130 right off the open, and then backed down, but found support at 1123.
So after looking at the charts again, there is another way to count this, and it fits in pretty nicely. The count suggests that we are in fact in Minuette wave 3, but more towards the end than the beginning.Theoritically, Minuette wave (iii) could have ended today, but I am going to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls and say that we get another new high tomorrow for subminuette v of (iii) before starting wave (iv). I expect Minuette wave (iv) to be shallow and boring. Probably some sideways action between 1125-1130 for a day or two, before completing Minuette wave (v) of Minute [iii].
If we do make another new high for subiminuette wave v tomorrow, it will probably be around 1132. As of right now, wave (iii) is smaller than wave (i). Elliott Wave rules say that a wave 3 can NEVER be the smallest wave in the structure, but is usually the longest. So let's see what happens if we make it to 1132 tomorrow.
The alternate count is that we are already in Minuette wave (iv). The bearish alternate count is that ovbiously today was THE top, but I don't think so.
As expected, the US Dollar continued to pullback in its Minor wave 2.
Tomorrow, the S&P Case-Shiller HPI releases at 9:00 AM EST and Consumer Confidence releases at 10:00 AM EST.
0 comments:
Post a Comment