Market Update - 12/30/2009

Dow Jones Industrial Average: +3.10 or 0.03% at 10548.51
S&P 500 Index: -0.22 or 0.02% at 1126.42
NASDAQ Composite Index: +2.88 or 0.13% at 2291.28
CBOE Volatility Index: -0.05 or 0.25% at 19.96
NYSE Internals: 1377 Advance. 1627 Decline.

Markets squeeze out gains after choppy trading session.

Very choppy day today. The SPX bounced around in a tight 3-4 point range.

As I said yesterday, expect some sort of wave 4. My two options were either a Minuette wave (iv) or a Minute wave [iv]. They may sound the same, but they play two completely different roles. If this is Minute [iv] then we started wave [v] today, and it means the top of Primary Wave 2 is near. If this is Minuette wave (iv), we have a lot more to go before a top.

So if Minute wave [iv] ended today, we have ovbiously started wave [v]. We should come up in 5 waves. The target for right now is around 1145. The price target will become more visible once we start to develop some solid wave structures for wave [v].

If wave [iv] did not end today, 1116 must hold. If we break 1116, the top may be in.

Here is the bearish count on the Dow, suggesting that the top is already in. The count is not wrong, but I just think it looks a little messy to be in play, but regardless, it could play out only if we have topped.

I expect tomorrow to be extremely quiet. Hopefully volume will come back into the markets after the New Year.