We broke 1191 intra-day today, but we did not close below it. This pivot point seems to be weakening a little. We sliced right through it on the way down and on the way back up. We also took out our lows from Friday. We can now see a clear 5 waves down on most of the major indices. But however, both of my counts are still in play.
On the SPX, we could have completed subminuette wave i at today's lows. The bounce back up we saw this afternoon was most likely the start of wave ii.
If this is the case, I expect us to at least test 1200. After we get to somewhere around 1200, we should fall back down in a wave iii, taking out our current lows at 1183.68.
The Nasdaq count is the bullish count. We are still in the expanding diagonal it seems. Although the bounce back up isn't as strong, it could still be the start of wave (v).
The reason I feel the bullish count may play out is because of the Dow. The Dow did not make new lows today, and it has been stronger than the other indices, on the way down and on the way up. The Dow also does not have a clear 5 waves down like the SPX. The Dow may lead us to new highs.
1183 and 1200 are the key pivots for tomorrow.
Google also seems to be sort of bottoming here.
It has not reached my target of 540, it was still about $5 short. We'll see if it can still make it there if we sell off further.
Monday, April 19, 2010
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