A surprise down day today. It was news related, which is why I am still a little hesitant to believe it. Yes, wave counts are generally not effected by news - in the end, the market will go where the market has to go - but the news today was pretty bad.
In any case, we did break some important pivots today. We closed under 1200. We did break 1191 intra-day, but couldn't close below it. As I said a few days ago, a close below 1191 will produce further selling. We seemed to bounce off that pivot each time we got near it today. Market breadth was also bearish through the day, I believe the low was somewhere around 21:1 down, but we closed well above that at almost 12:1.
The bullish count can still be in play if I count it slightly differently. This count is on the Nasdaq.
We could be starting wave (v) of this diagonal. If this is the case, Monday should be a bullish day.
The alternate count is the bearish count. The SPX was weaker that the Dow and Nasdaq, so the count fits a little better on it.
We are in what seems like a subminuette wave ii that could have topped. If it has, Monday should open low and continue to sell off in a nasty little wave iii. If not, we open a little higher, then sell off.
Here is an up close view of the sell off.
This is just a rough count, but as you can see we should be in wave ii right now. It's hard to count it out, hopefully Monday will give us an answer.
1200 will be the important number in both cases. Breaking back above 1200 could imply one more move to 1210.
Google also broke support at 560. We bounced around it a few times, but eventually it did sell off further.
As I said yesterday, breaking 560 would mean a move to 539.
Despite GS selling off big today, we held our primary trendline.
This trendline is coming from its crash lows in November of 2008. We touched it almost to the penny and bounced back up. If we do break this trendline, GS could see some further selling. If not, GS may bounce back up a little bit before testing that trendline again.
I will try and do a video this time for my weekend update.
0 comments:
Post a Comment