Market Update - 4/28/2010

A choppy and volatile day today. So far, the waves today seemed very corrective. There could be a few different variations of my bearish count now. The bullish count on the Nasdaq was once again challenged today, but we seemed to have held up the major pivots. Internals were also not bullish.

On my bearish count, I have changed the down move up a degree. Instead the down move yesterday being a subminuette wave i, I have it as a minuette wave (i). Nothing really changes for the overall targets because of this. I also have the alternate listed that this was just an (a) wave, with us being in (b) and (c) to follow to end the down move. If it is wave (i), we should fall further because waves (iii) and (v) would still have to come.

Either way, the wave (ii) or (b) should take us to at least 1200 in this count before falling.

The more bearish count is that this down move is either a subminuette wave i or wave a, with a sideways wave ii/b that occured today.

If you look at it on the 1 minute time frame, the sideways correction could have ended today. If this is the case, we should see a decent sized sell off tomorrow for wave c. If it is wave iii, it should be a nasty down day.

For the bullish count, we are really running out of room to the downside. We need to reverse back up real soon.

Breaking 2450 will put this count in jeopardy. We need to have a strong up move breaking 2480 and 2496 in the next few days for us to confirm a new uptrend.

Google came close to testing its pivot at 520 today. Google has been following a very good pattern lately. It's been going from pivot to pivot, just as expected.

There are also some divergences that have been set up. We could back test 540 in the next day or so. However, if we break below 520, the next major pivot is right around 500-505.

Apple also looks like it is slowly starting to roll over. As I said yesterday, 257 is the next key number to watch for.

But first, we may get back to 265 for a 50% fib. retracement of this recent down move.

Market Update - 4/27/2010

A somewhat surprising and powerful move to the downside today. Over the past few days, I have been expecting a very sharp wave (iv) down in my count on the SPX. However, it was a little sharper than I had expected. I thought that 1191 would hold. We clearly closed below it today. The Dow also broke 11,000 and the Nasdaq broke 2500. Some key pivots were broken. Also, market internals were also very weak. NYSE Breadth was as low as 19:1, and closed almost at its lows around 18:1 down.

I now have a possible bearish count as well as a bullish count still in play. But with the velocity of the down move today, the bears could take control real soon. On the bearish count, this ovbiously is a minuette wave i down.

It looks as if we have 5 waves from our highs, and they look complete. We could get a strong push back up for wave ii over the next day or so. The 50% retracement for that is around 1200. But 1191 is now resistance. After that retracement back up, we could sell off very hard in a wave iii.

Here is a rough sketch of the waves in the down move. Again, this is just a rough sketch.

We could actually open flat and then sell off to perhaps 1178 before bouncing for wave ii. If not, we may just bounce right off the open.

The ultimate bearish count is that this down move is something bigger than we think, and we continue to sell off again tomorrow.

The bullish count is that this infact was just a sharp wave (iv), a little sharper than expected just to throw off some bears. We know how the market loves to fool everyone.

If this is the case, we should start a strong up move over the next few days.

The US Dollar came close to making new highs for its uptrend today. We could also have a very bullish pattern playing out.

There is a potential inverse head and shoulders setting up on the USD. We seem to have a break of the neck line. If we continue up, the target for the inverse H&S is around 83.90. This could easily happen if the EURO continues to fall due to problems with Greece.

My count on Apple could have been a little off. We have come down too much for this still to be a subminuette wave iv.

The count for now is that Apple has topped. Breaking below 257 could confirm this.

Market Update - 4/26/2010

We made new highs again today, then sort of chopped around and backed off a little bit. The Dow was stubbornly stronger today though, despite the weakness in the financials. Most of the major indices made new highs, so there is no confirmation that we are waiting for.

My count on the SPX could be playing out now. Yesterday in my update I said that we could be starting a sharp wave (iv) correction to possibly 1191 in the worst case scenario.

We could continue to pullback to atleast 1205 in this case. Anywhere between 1191 and 1205 could be a decent sized pullback for this possible wave (iv). Breaking below 1191 could make the count out of play.

My Nasdaq count is also still in play with this being a sideways wave b.

We could continue to chop sideways and then bounce back up sharply in this count.

Google broke its all important pivot at 540 today.

The next major pivot is at 520. However, we could bounce back to 540 first as we seem to have some slight positive divergences.

Apple also had a choppy to slightly downward day today. The subminuette wave iv could still be playing out, but time wise it should be close to completing.

We could get one last push up towards 275 in the next few days after this wave iv is done.

Weekend Update - April 25, 2010

We broke over the important pivot od 1215 this week on the SPX. However, the break was only by 2 points. If we get some follow through come Monday morning, this should imply a clean break of this pivot. There are a few possible routes that the market could take from here. The 2 that stick out to me both happen to be bullish. However, one is more bullish than the other.

The first one is a count on the SPX. We could be in an ending diagonal. Wave (iii) may have completed at the highs on Friday.

If this is the case, we should get a quick and sharp pullback for wave (iv). Prices could come as low as 1191 and this count could still be in play. After the wave (iv) pullback, we should continue higher towards 1225.

The more bullish count is on the Nasdaq.

We are in the middle of wave (v) for this count and should continue higher from the open on Monday. We could also get a very small pullback to 2205 for a wave b, but this pullback is not required for this count, however a wave b pullback would set up more divergences when we make highs for wave c.

The SPX daily chart also implies that we could not be done yet. We are at some resistance from the Lehman bankruptcy day, but this could be easily.

The 61.8% Fib retracement of the entire down move also resides at 1228 - which is close to 1225. So that entire area between 1225-1230 should serve as solid resistance if we get to it.

The reason I am hesitant to call for a bearish count is because we basically closed at our highs on Friday. So there are basically no waves down from our highs, since we are sitting right on them to the penny. And even if we are to gap down on Monday, this is not how a new downtrend would likely start, because bearish opens usually reverse quickly. This is a pattern that has re-occured many times.

I also just wanted to post a quick rough count on Apple.

We could be close to a top, the next pivot to watch for is 275, which could be the top for this wave.

Market Update - 4/23/2010

Just a short update today, I will have more over the weekend.

We broke over 1215 today, so this means we will most likely see 1225-1230 next week. The market seems very strong and doesn't look like it is going to give up anytime soon. Closing at the highs of the day/week is a bullish sign. Momentum is in the hands of the bulls.

The Nasdaq still seems to be in the c wave of wave (v).

2550 is a pivot to watch for in the days to come.

The SPX daily chart is running into resistance here.

Sorry for the short post, but I don't have time to make a full update today. I will have more stuff in the weekend. Hopefully another video. Thanks!

Market Update - 4/22/2010

The 1191 pivot held once again today. It also produced a very big bounce back up, nearly 20 S&P points back up in a matter of hours. I am going to eliminate the bearish count for now and stick with my bullish count that seems to be working.

On the Nasdaq, we got a deeper than expected wavd b, but the pattern is still valid. We had a very powerful move back up and we took out the highs of wave (iii). This should imply that we are in another up leg.

I don't have an exact target right now, but our overall trend should be higher, and no pull back should take out the lower trendline or 2467 on the Nasdaq. We may get some consolodation early tomorrow, but overall we should go higher whether we pull back or not.

Also, the Nasdaq made new highs while the SPX and Dow did not. They are probably just lagging behind. We could see new highs soon.

And again, there are really no bearish counts that seem to look impulsive. But breaking below 1200 and/or 1191 could imply further selling. Breaking over 1215 could mean a move towards 1230. So just watch for a break of those pivots on either side

Yesterday, I said to expect new highs on Apple after a little consolodation.

We had a big thrust up today. Could be a potential blow off top. We'll have to see. My target was 265. We exceeded that a little, but we could be close to a top. 267 is the next pivot to the upside. Breaking below 256 could take us to 251.

Google also continued to hang around the 545 and 550 level for most of the day.

This could be a possible double bottom, and the positive divergences are there to support it. Breaking over 552 may take us back to 560.

Market Update - 4/21/2010

Sort of a choppy day today. Seems like consolodation for more upside to come. The Nasdaq ovbiously led the way up today being carried by Apple. The SPX lagged behind due to some weakness in the financials.

As crazy as it sounds, there could still be a potential bearish count in play. We could have a leading diagonal coming down from our highs yesterday.

If this plays out, we need to open lower tomorrow and take out today's lows around 1198. We may bounce after for a wave ii, but the bounce needs to be corrective and not impulsive.

However, the bullish count on the Nasdaq still makes more sense.

We could have had a sideways b wave, and if this plays out, we should get another strong move up tomorrow in a c wave to new highs.

Apple could have one more push higher coming soon.

As you can see, the recent up move seems to have completed 4 minuette waves. We may start wave (v) of [v] of 5 tomorrow if wave (iv) has ended. If not, we may consolodate sideways a little more before going higher. The target is around 265.

Even on the daily chart, we can see the extending Minor wave 5.

Google also opened around the pivot of 560 today, we slightly peeked above it, but sold off right away.

545 may be the next target.

Market Update - 4/20/2010

My bearish count on the SPX is coming close to being violated. We have retraced more than 78.6% and have come up on 5 waves from our lows. Either this is a very deep retrace for wave ii, or my bullish Nasdaq count is in play.

Here is the chart of my bullish count.

It seems to look more cleaner on the Nasdaq, since the pattern is still in play. We may take a little breather and pullback slightly before we go higher. 2490 and 2470 are good pivots.

For the SPX, we may backtest 1200 and bounce. If we break below 1200, watch for 1191 and 1183 again.

On the bearish side, today could have also been a backtest of the upper line of the diagonal.

If this bearish count is still in play, we need to sell off big tomorrow.

Google also seemed to back test its pivot at 560 today. We tagged it and came down.

It could go for a gap fill around 550, so watch for that level now.

Market Update - 4/19/2010

We broke 1191 intra-day today, but we did not close below it. This pivot point seems to be weakening a little. We sliced right through it on the way down and on the way back up. We also took out our lows from Friday. We can now see a clear 5 waves down on most of the major indices. But however, both of my counts are still in play.

On the SPX, we could have completed subminuette wave i at today's lows. The bounce back up we saw this afternoon was most likely the start of wave ii.

If this is the case, I expect us to at least test 1200. After we get to somewhere around 1200, we should fall back down in a wave iii, taking out our current lows at 1183.68.

The Nasdaq count is the bullish count. We are still in the expanding diagonal it seems. Although the bounce back up isn't as strong, it could still be the start of wave (v).

The reason I feel the bullish count may play out is because of the Dow. The Dow did not make new lows today, and it has been stronger than the other indices, on the way down and on the way up. The Dow also does not have a clear 5 waves down like the SPX. The Dow may lead us to new highs.

1183 and 1200 are the key pivots for tomorrow.

Google also seems to be sort of bottoming here.

It has not reached my target of 540, it was still about $5 short. We'll see if it can still make it there if we sell off further.

Weekend Update - Video

Thanks for watching! :)

Market Update - 4/16/2010

A surprise down day today. It was news related, which is why I am still a little hesitant to believe it. Yes, wave counts are generally not effected by news - in the end, the market will go where the market has to go - but the news today was pretty bad.

In any case, we did break some important pivots today. We closed under 1200. We did break 1191 intra-day, but couldn't close below it. As I said a few days ago, a close below 1191 will produce further selling. We seemed to bounce off that pivot each time we got near it today. Market breadth was also bearish through the day, I believe the low was somewhere around 21:1 down, but we closed well above that at almost 12:1.

The bullish count can still be in play if I count it slightly differently. This count is on the Nasdaq.

We could be starting wave (v) of this diagonal. If this is the case, Monday should be a bullish day.

The alternate count is the bearish count. The SPX was weaker that the Dow and Nasdaq, so the count fits a little better on it.

We are in what seems like a subminuette wave ii that could have topped. If it has, Monday should open low and continue to sell off in a nasty little wave iii. If not, we open a little higher, then sell off.

Here is an up close view of the sell off.

This is just a rough count, but as you can see we should be in wave ii right now. It's hard to count it out, hopefully Monday will give us an answer.

1200 will be the important number in both cases. Breaking back above 1200 could imply one more move to 1210.

Google also broke support at 560. We bounced around it a few times, but eventually it did sell off further.

As I said yesterday, breaking 560 would mean a move to 539.

Despite GS selling off big today, we held our primary trendline.

This trendline is coming from its crash lows in November of 2008. We touched it almost to the penny and bounced back up. If we do break this trendline, GS could see some further selling. If not, GS may bounce back up a little bit before testing that trendline again.

I will try and do a video this time for my weekend update.

Market Update - 4/15/2010

We made new highs again today. We also broke over the 1210 pivot. I expect us to continue higher because of this.

However, short term we may get a small little pullback or some sideways actions for subminuette wave iv. My count on the Nasdaq and the SPY are the same.

After a slight pullback/consolodation, I expect us to make our way higher towards 1225. 1225 is going to be a VERY key pivot. There is a lot of resistance in that area from before our crash in late 2008. This is also the 61.8% retracement.

As you can see from that daily chart, we are coming up right against the lower end of that range.

Google has had a nice rally in the past few days. However, it is down tonight after hours due to earnings.

It will most likely gap down tomorrow, but a down move should be natural since we are overbought on the shorter time frame, and are diverging. It also has some nice support at 560, and a very key pivot at 539. Breaking 560 may take us to 539. So it will be important to keep and eye on that.

Market Update - 4/14/2010

We broke through 1200 today and never really looked back. We kept going up all day and right closed on our highs. The only reason the 1210 pivot held is because we ran out of time. I'm sure it would have broken above it if the closing bell didn't ring.

1225 is most likely the next target is 1210 is taken out, which I expect it to. There are no bearish signs anywhere, except that we are overbought and diverging... but this really doesn't mean anything.

Both of my counts on the Nasdaq and SPY show the samething. We are in the middle of wave iii of (iii). The most bullish wave in this short term structure.

We should continue higher if this is going to play out. Watch for 1225.

The SPX daily chart also had a bit of a throw-over above it's upperline of this ending diagonal.

These throw-overs are comming in diagonals. We are also at some resistance at 1210. 1225 is also around the 61.8% Fib retracement.

All of the major indices have crossed major hurdles. The SPX broke 1200, the Dow broke 11000 and the Nasdaq broke 2500. The market is in a very bullish mode. The only real bearish thing is that there are no bears left. No one to sell. The VIX is dead, volume is dead, internals are dead.

If by some miracle, we break below 1200 and perhaps 1191 tomorrow, we could see further selling. But as long as we remain over 1200, most wave counts will be bullish.

Market Update - 4/13/2010

Another possible reversal day today. We opened lower and then sold off in the early morning. We made our low around 1189, which is cose to the 1191 pivot that I said would be key. So far, this pivot is showing that it can be strong support. We bounced higher for the rest of the day.
The waves are starting to once again get a little choppy. Perhaps a top of some sort could be near. But there is no way to be sure of that until we get some more clear direction.

My count on the SPY/SPX is still the same. If this count is going to play out, 1200 could be taken out tomorrow.

It will be key to watch how we react to a break of 1200. If we reverse down and close below 1191, it could mark some kind of a top. If we slice through it and continue higher, it could be exteremely bullish.

My alternate count on the Nasdaq is that we are also in an ending diagonal, however this one could have completed, if not, it will complete early tomorrow and top.

If this plays out, we may open higher and then sell off. If it is really bearish, we may just open lower. However, I am afraid of that since then we could have a potential gap that would need to be filled.

On the daily SPX chart, we are sitting right near a very important resistance line.

Yesterday, the US Dollar did break its upward channel. The next pivot to watch for is 79.70.

If we break below our support, we could be in wave (2).

Apple is also looking very extended up here. It also seems to be flattening out on the daily charts.

The past few candle sticks haven't been very bullish. It could be a rounding top. Breaking below 232.75 could be bearish.