Weekend Update - Looking at the indices

Sorry for not posting a video this weekend. I've been a little busy.

This last week, we had new highs in most of the major indices except the Dow Industrials. Now with the Dow being the main index that everyone watches, it is bearish that the Dow has not confirmed the highs by the other indices. Of course, the Dow could be lagging and it could make a new high next week, but it is still about 100 points away, and there is a lot of resitance overhead.

Here is a chart looking at the major indices.

As you can see, there is a lot of disconnect between the Nasdaq/Russel and the other 3. The Nasdaq and Russel have had a bigger move up, which has not been confirmed by the Dow, SPX and the Trans.

I looked over possible wave counts this weekend, and the best I can come up with is going back to the basics. A simple ABC correction this entire time from the March 2009 lows. With wave (C) being a large diagonal.

Although this count calls for slightly higher highs on the SPX, it is actually very bearish. Once this wave 5 up tops, we could potentially fall very fast. The key pivot to watch will be 1044. If we break below it, we will pick up momentum to the downside.

On the smaller time frame, we may still have a little bit more room to go. Perhaps some intra-day highs.

If we can break below 1135, it will be bearish.

Also, we have had a lot of gap ups since our lows in early Feb.

These gaps looks like exhaustion gaps, so they should be filled.

On the larger time frame, I just wanted to throw some charts out there. Again, this is just pure speculation. As you know, elliott wave theory calls for a big drop coming our way. Ovbiously, there has to be some sort of event to take us down. But we'll just follow this 1 wave at a time.

I just wanted to show these longer term charts to those who were interested in seeing where we could potentially end up according to EW.

Here is my overall take on the all time Dow chart. It might be different from some elliott wavers, but this is my take.

Pretty self explanatory. Remember, EW relies on the "channeling" rule. As you can see, all the waves connect on some sort of channel. This was the ultra-bearish chart.

Another take is looking at the long term Nasdaq chart.

This is not as bearish as the Dow chart, but it is still calling for a drop, to perhaps test the lows of at least November 2008 or even March 2009. Since this is a triangle, after we make the E wave, the next move up will be very powerful.

Again, sorry for not doing a video update. Hopefully I will try and get on in next week. Thank you!