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Friday, March 12, 2010

Market Update - 3/12/2010

The SPX finally made new highs today. I guess this was expected since we did not gap down this morning. But now the important thing is the intra-market divergences. SPX and Nasdaq have made new highs, the Dow is still about 80-100 or so points away from it's highs. This is actually bearish if all the indices don't make a new high at the same time.

Since we made a new high on the SPX, the wave counts have been slightly changed. It seems that this decent down move was the 2nd (X) wave, making this recent run up wave (Z).
This pattern is similar to the 2007 top I talked about last week in my video.

On the shorter time frame, I have also made some changes.
Basically, I think the SPX will go a little higher. My target is between 1155 and 1160.
As you can see, there are a lot of Fib extensions that line up in that area.

The reason I think we may have new highs is because we really didn't sell off hard after making our highs. It doesn't feel like a top. If we gap down big on Monday, then that may change. But for now, it still looks like it has one last push higher left.

I will have more charts and detailed analysis in my video over the weekend.

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