Market Update - 3/31/2010

More consolodation today. We had a bigger range today that we have had in the past few days, but the down moves are still hard to count as impulses from the highs.

For now, I am going to stick with my count on SPY. I have made some changes though. But the count is basically pushing the limits.

Instead of it being an ABC wave [iv], it seems to be taking the shape of a triangle. If we break towards the upside, we could get a very strong move. I am doubtful of it breaking down, but if it does happen, the move could be strong as well. Basically, whichever direction is break in, it will produce a strong move.

Watch for the pivots at 1180 and 1160.

The rising trendline on the SPX that I was talking about yesterday did break today, but we did not sell off.

We may get a backtest, and if it fails to hold, then we may fall.

Apple was down today, but it has still help up above its gap support. Breaking below 232 will close the gap, and could be bearish. After that, the next pivot is at 227.

Market Update - 3/30/2010

More sideways choppy action today. We have been virtually in the same range for about 6 days now. The pattern is similar to the consolodation in November/December of 2009. If we follow the same path, we should have a decent up move coming soon.

Nothing has changed on the wave counts, because the market really hasn't moved. We are chopping higher.

2465-2470 on the Nasdaq is the rough target for now. It may change one we get some movement.

The count on the SPY is also the same. Only thing is, we aren't moving higher.

We seem to be caught up near the lower trendline.

This trendline coming from our February lows is a key line.

If it breaks, we could get some selling pressure. The key pivots remain to be 1160 and 1150 to the downside, and 1180 to the upside.

On Apple, we could be potentially setting up a very bearish candlestick pattern.

The candlestick today was a Doji, but the pattern for the past 2 days could be setting up an abandoned baby or island top reversal. If we gap down tomorrow and close below 231.61, it could be bearish.

Market Update - 3/29/2010

More sideways action in a narrow range again today. The SPX was trapped in a 4 point range all day. Volume was also very light. We still seem to be in a wave 4.

I was expecting the Nasdaq to come down a little bit more to complete its wave (iv). It did not, so it could be possible that it has already ended.

The alternate count on that chart is that we still come down to make the wave (iv) low and continue higher afterwards.

I have a similar count on the SPY.

If this count plays out, we should continue higher tomorrow.

It is still hard to count a bearish wave pattern off of our highs last week. Until we get more selling pressure, the trend is up.

If we break below 1160, we could go lower. Breaking above 1180 will produce another up move.

The US Dollar continued to pullback today. Crude and Gold were up and the VIX was down.

Weekend Update - March 28, 2010

Sorry for not doing a video this weekend, I was a little busy.

We were up a decent amount on all the major indices this week. However, we did have a reversal on Thursday and into Friday. The waves down are hard to count as impulsive, so I am labeling them as corrective for now.

I do expect higher highs to potentially come this week. We may get to 2450 on the Nasdaq and perhaps 1190-1200 on the SPX. The Dow may even try to challenge 11,000.

If we manage to break below 1160 and 1150, we could continue to lower to perhaps 1130.

It's hard to give an exact number on that trendline since it's upward sloping, but for a further up move, that line must hold.

The US dollar pulled back a little bit on Friday. It closed slightly below support at 82, but it's nothing too major.

It may continue to pullback a little more, but in the end, I think it is going higher.

I wanted to show some more long term charts again today. A while back, I posted my long term Dow chart. The chart suggested a huge crash headed our way in Primary Wave 3. This ovbiously is the ultra bearish count.

The less severe bearish counts still calls for a down move, but nothing like a huge crash.

According to this alternate, the downmove may still be large, but not as significant as a Primary Wave 3.

Also, on a bullish note...

The Nasdaq has slightly broken above its long term triangle. It is not a complete break. It could still collapse below and tag the bottom line.

Market Update - 3/26/2010

Choppy and volatile day once again today. It seems corrective still. We did have a down move this afternoon, but it's hard to count a clear impulse off our highs at 1180 on the SPX.

I'm going to stick with my bullish count for now. It seems to be working the best. I have it charted on the Nasdaq since the waves seems a little bit more clear there.

Basically, we are in a wave (iv) in an ending diagonal. It doesn't seem complete, but it could reverese back up at anytime. If not, we may come down a little bit more, tag the support line and run back up.

Apple made new highs today, reacting to an upgrade. Events like these usually mark a top. When Apple was $80, it was downgraded. And now at 230 it's a buy?! I love the timing. After that downgrade, it shot up and never looked back. Maybe a similar thing will happen this time and we'll sell off on Apple now.

Regardless, it is running out of steam. Breaking 220 will be bearish.

The US Dollar also pulled back a little bit.

I will have more charts over the weekend. Hopefully I can do another video.

Market Update - 3/25/2010

Big reversal day today. We were up a good amount in the morning, tagged my 1180 pivot and reversed. The down move was fairly strong. Nearly a 14 point reversal on the SPX and just over 100 points on the Dow.

As of now, I have 2 possible scenarios. The first one is the bullish count that I have been on for the past week or so. I have it charted on the Nasdaq, since the waves are a little bit more clear.

It's possible that we are an Ending Diagonal for this move up. So far, on the Nasdaq, I only see 3 completed waves, and we seem to be in the 4th one now. After pulling back a little bit, we go higher.

On the SPX, I have that same ending diagonal pattern, but I can see 5 waves for it.

The waves are a little different on the SPX, so this is why the bearish pattern is a little bit more clear. This count suggests that we have topped, and we start a new down move.

The daily candle stick pattern is also bearish.

If it plays out, we could go lower.

And as expected, the US dollar continued to go higher today.

We may back off just a little bit to take a breather, as it seems a bit overbought on the smaller time frame, but the overall trend is up.

Apple had a bearish engulfing candle stick today.

It is possible that Apple may have topped.

Market Update - 3/24/2010

Today seemed like a sideways consolodation day. We chopped around in a 5-6 point range on the SPX today. No impulsive waves to the downside. Internals were not very strong. Everything is pointing to more upside.

On the shorter time frame wave count, we may be in a complex Minute wave [iv]. I am going to stick with the Nasdaq chart I posted yesterday, it seems to have more clear patterns.

We may come down to finish the (e) wave somewhere around 2366. This will be roughly 1153-1155 on the SPX. After that, we may continue to go up, to maybe 1200 on the SPX.

Apple also hit my target of 230 today. But we could go a little higher.

It is possible that we have may topped, but Apple still seems strong. Breaking over today's high of 230.20 will be bullish, and a break below 220 will be bearish.

As you know, I have been bullish on the US Dollar for a long time. In my video over the weekend, I was expecting new highs on the Dollar. Well, today was a huge up day for the US Dollar. We broke over some very heavy resistance around 82.

We basically have very little resistance in our way now. The next target is somewhere around 83.35.

As a result, the Euro has been weakening. The EUR/USD is at a 10 month low I believe.

The Euro may continue to weaken because of the problems with Greece, and the downgrading of Portugal. A weaker Euro and a stronger Dollar should actually be bad for our markets, but we really haven't seen our markets react to a stronger Dollar. Perhaps a long term uptrending US Dollar will eventually bring our markets down.

Market Update - 3/23/2010

Yesterday I said that 1170 would be taken out today, and it was. The last hour was also very bullish action. All indices made new highs, so there is confirmation. Internals and volume were the only things not pointing to bullishness. However, we are overbought on nearly all time frames.

Short term, the trend continues to be up. There are no signs of weakness. Closing at our highs today adds to this theory.

1180 is the next pivot.

I also have an alternate count on the Nasdaq. It is slightly more bullish than my first count.

Instead of this being a wave C up, the Nasdaq count suggests that this is a wave [v] of 5 up. Either way, both wave counts suggest more upside. Here is the same count on the SPX daily:

On the daily time frames, there are some mixed signals.

The RSI is diverging and is overbought, but the MACD is pointing straight up. We'll see what happens.

Nothing on the bearish case, except now we have to break below 1170 and 1150.

Apple also continued it's up move today, as expected.

The target is still around 230.

Google continued to go down today, we seem to be in a Minuette wave (iii).

Expect Google to continue down.

Market Update - 3/22/2010

As I had said in my market update, expect the market to possibly go higher. Despite the bearish open today because of the healthcare vote, we continued our rally up. News does not effect the wave structures. The market is continuing to show strength to the upside, as it continues to shrug off bearish news. It is also showing no signs of reversing.

We didn't touch the 1170 pivot, but we came within 3 points of it. There are good chances that 1170 gets taken out tomorrow.

After that, we have a pretty clear path to 1200, but we may find some resistance around 1180.

The Nasdaq squeezed out a high by 1 point today. It seems to also be in a straight upward channel similar to the SPX.

Until we break below this channel, the trend remains up.

On the bearish side, we need to break below 1150, but until we do... the SPX will remain in an uptrend. We also need confirmation from the internals on any down move.

Apple also continued it's up move today. I am still expecting it to go higher.

The current target is around 230. Let's see if it gets there.

Market Video Update - 3/21/2010

Sorry for posting this late. I had some troubles uploading on YouTube for some reason. I think the video quality came out a little rough too, but it's still watchable. :)

Thank you!

Market Update - 3/19/2010

We did get some selling today, but it wasn't convincing enough. Also, the Dow was the only index to make a new high today. The SPX and Nasdaq came close, but did not make new highs. The last 30 minutes also got very volatile. We sold off to new intra-day lows, but then bounced right back. It probably had to do something with expiration. People closing out positions in the last minute. I also think that some indices last settling price is 30 minutes before the close. So perhaps that has something to do with it.

Despite all of that, it is still hard to count impulse waves down from the highs. Impulse waves should be more clear to count. It seems that we may still have more room to the upside. Here is another variation of the recent count.

Target is still between 1175-1180. We probably also came down just so that on our way back up, the RSI and MACD will diverge.

Breaking 1150 may take us lower, to perhaps 1135.

A few days ago, I had said that the US Dollar basically needed to start coming back up, or the impulse count could have been wrong. For 2 days now, the Dollar has had a nice rally.

We should continue going higher, and most likely we will make new highs in the Dollar soon.

On Apple, Minor wave 4 seems to be just about completing.

I am also expecting new highs in Apple in the days to come.

I will try and do a video this weekend, so please check back for that.

Market Update - 3/18/2010

Dull sideways consolodation day today. The Dow is now once again looking like the strongest index. Last week, the Dow was lagging behind the SPX and the Nasdaq. While they made new highs, the Dow was still struggling. Today, the Dow made new highs while the SPX and Nasdaq lagged behind.

Today was very choppy. There are no clear impulse waves down, so it implies that today was just a correction. I am expecting new highs soon.

The target for right now is somewhere around 1175-1180.

If we break 1180, it will be very bullish. 1200 could be a given if 1180 is taken out. Here is the daily count:

Basically, this ending diagonal pattern we are in for Intermediate wave (C) has a potential upside target of about 1200. Since waves 2 and 4 connect on a trendlinde, waves 1, 3 and 5 are mostly likely to as well. If wave 5 gets to the trendline, the target is 1200 by the end of the month. 1200 is also a very significant pivot point. Back in the fall of 2008, the break below 1200 had really started the crash. So this will be a key level of resistance if we get up there.

Breaking below 1150 will be bearish.

Also on the daily charts, the MACD and RSI look very extended.

The RSI is currenrtly overbought, and is sitting well above the 70 level. Expect it to diverge if we continue higher.

Market Update - 3/17/2010

We broke 1160 today. This was the key pivot point that I said to keep an eye on. I was expecting at least 1175 if we were to broke 1160, but we got to 1170... which I guess is close enough. Instead of going up big into the close, we seemed to back down a little bit. It wasn't very impulsive though. We also got Dow Theory confirmation with the Dow making new highs today.

We seem to have a near perfect upward channel from our triangle breakout the other day.

So far, I only see 4 waves. I am expecting higher highs tomorrow for wave [5]. If we get those highs between 1175-1180, we could reverse down afterwards.

Breaking below 1150 will be bearish, and breaking above 1180 will be very bullish.

The Nasdaq finally hit its long term downward trendline today. This line has always produced a violent move to the downside.

Let's see if it holds or not.

The US Dollar is pretty much at a level where it needs to turn up, otherwise it could turn down once again.

We seem to have a clear 3 waves up, and it looks like the dollar is in a wave 4. We are also at some key fib support. The dollar basically needs to go up from here, otherwise this recent move was just an ABC up.

RIMM still seems to be in a corrective wave up from its lows last fall.

Time wise, this wave 2 has lasted a long time. Either the count is wrong, or RIMM needs to start turning down soon.

Market Update - 3/16/2010

As expected, we made new highs once again today. We also happened to make our high right around the 1160 level. I have mentioned this number a few times, and we finally got to it today. The Dow did not make a new high, and it contiues to be the weakest and lag behind the other indices.

On the smaller time frame, I can count 5 waves up from our triangle break out yesterday.

Now, this 5 waves up looks complete, and this could potentially end wave c, thus it could potentially mark the top of this up move. I think that the 1160 level is a big number. This is a very key fib extension, and a lot of people are watching it closely. If it fails to hold, 1175-1180 may be the next target. But for now, I feel that it may hold.

1150 becomes the number to watch to the down side. If we can break back below 1150, we could see more sellers come in.

The pattern from late 2007 has looked almost similar to what we have just experienced in these past few weeks.

We could easily be sideways for a few days, and then potentially move lower.

Apple seems like it is now in Minor wave 4. As I said a few weeks ago, Apple needed to pullback a little bit in a wave 4 before making its wave 5 peak.

It could still chop around a little more before going higher.

So a lot of mixed signals now again. SPX has been making new highs this week, while the Dow has struggled on each day the SPX has made a new high. If we break 1160 tomorrow, it could be bullish. Watch for the confirmation on the Dow. The current high is around 10730.