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Thursday, September 30, 2010

Market Update - 9/30/2010

On Tuesday I had said that there was a possibility to make it to 1155. We hit 1157 today. The primary count is that Minor wave 2 has ended and we should be starting another meaningful down move. However, to fully confirm this we still need to break a few more key pivots.

Breaking below this triangle was a start. I am going to label this as a top, but there is still a possibility that we could take out the current highs. I wouldn't count on it unless we can break 1150 again.
The next key number to break is 1134.

On the smaller time frame, we had a pretty nice looking impulse down from our high today. It really looks like a "perfect" 5 waves down, followed by 3 corrective waves up.
Wave C of (2) looks a bit small, so we could get a quick pop tomorrow morning, but it is not required. The only thing required for this wave count to be valid is that we do not break today's high AND we need to close below today's low of 1136.

The daily charts had a perfect looking reversal candle today. First, here is the broad view of the daily chart:
The wave structure looks "complete" and it looks like it is ready to drop.

I want to highlight the previous key tops from our all time high 3 years ago. I know it is hard to see, but take a look at those candles.
Each one of them has a big shadow at the top, most of them were either a shooting star or a spinning top.

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