Market Update - 11/12/2009

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -93.79 or 0.91% at 10197.47

S&P 500 Index: -11.27 or 1.03% at 1087.24

NASDAQ Composite Index: -17.88 or 0.83% at 2149.02

NYSE Internals: 633 Advance. 2401 Decline.

Sorry for not posting yesterday, I was a little busy.

So 1101 was broken. We made a new high at 1105. Looks like this market just doesn't want to ever stop. Once again, we have been forced to move around counts for Primary Wave [2]. The biggest flaw of Elliot Wave. We never know what wave we're in until it is complete.

Yes, we did sell off from our high of 1105. Nearly 20 points. But haven't we seen this before? Making a high, selling off for a day or two, then go up for the next 6... The bears cannot seem to keep the market down for too long, and the bulls keep taking full advantage of that and keep running it up for the whole week. We stay overbought on different indicators like RSI and MACD. Even the Stochastics are all overbought. Really no Technicals are working, and the Fundamentals are failing too.

So far, this down move from 1105 doesn't look that impulsive. But that may be a good thing. The last previous sell off's that were proved to be wrong looked very impulsive, but in fact they were not the start of a new down trend. Maybe this time we will slowly start to rollover at first, before we start going down fast. Who knows?

There are no clear wave structures on the smaller time frames, but the daily charts display 2 options. Either today was the top(again) or that we are starting a new uptrend towards 1150+ If 1150 is in play, that means the daily time frame will be a triple zigzag, instead of a double zigzag. Meaning it will be waves (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z) instead of (W)-(X)-(Y), what we have currently.

Bearish:

Bullish:

This new high was not confirmed with a new low in the VIX, Financials or Nasdaq. The US Dollar did make a new low though. Crude Oil did not make a new high.

We have a long way to go before we confirm a new downtrend. 1028 needs to be broken first.

US Dollar was up. Crude Oil and Gold were down. VIX was up. Financials were leading the way down.