Dow Jones Industrial Average: +78.07 or 0.80% at 9864.94
S&P 500 Index: +6.01 or 0.56% at 1071.49
NASDAQ Composite Index: +15.35 or 0.72% at 2139.28
NYSE Internals: 1815 Advance. 1186 Decline.
This is one of the many flaws of Elliott Wave. We really don't know the wave structure until a good part of it is complete. That's why using Elliott Wave alone doesn't always turn out too well.
Once again, the market is hanging on a key pivot at the 1070 area on the SPX. Most of the day was sideways hanging around this level. We managed to get a slight break at the close, but nothing too major. Volume was low. A/D wasn't too impulsive. Not even a 2:1 up ratio.
My second bearish count from yesterday was that we are going to complete a truncated 5th wave. Which means that the "top" for the wave structure will be lower than the "top" for the price structure at 1080 on the SPX. The reason I want to lean more towards this count is because we now also have 5 waves up from our wave (iv) low. Of course, this could have enough steam to test the highs at 1080, but it shouldn't break too much higher above that. And truncated 5th waves are common after a long and extended 3rd waves. Similar to the one we experienced throughout most of September.
The bullish count is obviously that we are going higher than 1080, perhaps 1100-1120. Even if the bullish count is in play, I am still expecting a very small down turn to test the 1040-1050 area, then explode to the upside.
Monday is again a key day. If we go any higher, then the bullish count is in play. If we explode to the downside, then the bearish count will most probably we in play. But we need to break 1039 in order for the bearish count to have some confirmation.
Dollar was up, Crude was up, market was up. Even the dollar strength couldn't bring this market down. Just shows how much bullish sentiment there is. Gold was slightly down. VIX was also down over 4%.
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